This is an interesting thought. Has kicking become too good in the modern game?
For my writing, I pour over a lot of play by play data from the past. One thing I notice is a lot of punts from the opponent's 40, or somewhere around their 40, because kickers' legs weren't big enough back then to kick such a long field goal. Such a play has become extinct in the NFL today. After years of us analytics guys yelling about it, it's finally become accepted practice to pretty much never punt from the opponent's side of midfield. If a team has no faith in their kicker, they will go for it on fourth. If they do have faith in their kicker, they will attempt a 57 yard field goal.
This season, with the kicking being so good leaguewide, it's been a lot of the 57 yard field goal option. People who only look at the score like it, because it's more points on the board, but it also entirely eliminates the chance at a touchdown that comes with successfully converting a fourth down from the 40. The league has to decide if they like this or not. If they're fine with all this kicking, I suspect you are correct, and teams will continue to lean conservative and kick field goals instead of trying fourth and fours.
If the league is in favour of more aggression, they must change the rules to make kicking more difficult (which would be extremely easy. It could even be done midseason), but considering the recent rule changes we've seen them make (like royally messing up their chance to fix the kickoff), I think it would be a stretch to say the NFL is in favour of aggression, so I don't see anything changing, which stinks, because I think fourth and fours are more exciting than the automatic 57 yard field goals we've been seeing so far.
Thanks for that bit about Chester. As a life-long Packer die-hard I remember his rookie year well - he was a legit phenom, and a much needed cure for several seasons’ worth of Packer kicking woes. His FG% that year recalls the ecstasy of a last minute game winner against the Falcons; years later, as his star began to dim in ‘78, the agony of a couple misses in a 10-10 OT tie with the Vikes that ultimately kept a surprisingly scrappy Packer team out of the playoffs. But arguably the hilight of his career came in the first game of the ‘79 season, when he caught his own blocked FG on the fly against the Bears and ran it in for the winning TD. The Pack went on to have a terrible season, but that one game and it’s magically comic ending against the always reprehensible bunch from Chi-town was worth a couple other wins all by itself. GPG!!!
This is an interesting thought. Has kicking become too good in the modern game?
For my writing, I pour over a lot of play by play data from the past. One thing I notice is a lot of punts from the opponent's 40, or somewhere around their 40, because kickers' legs weren't big enough back then to kick such a long field goal. Such a play has become extinct in the NFL today. After years of us analytics guys yelling about it, it's finally become accepted practice to pretty much never punt from the opponent's side of midfield. If a team has no faith in their kicker, they will go for it on fourth. If they do have faith in their kicker, they will attempt a 57 yard field goal.
This season, with the kicking being so good leaguewide, it's been a lot of the 57 yard field goal option. People who only look at the score like it, because it's more points on the board, but it also entirely eliminates the chance at a touchdown that comes with successfully converting a fourth down from the 40. The league has to decide if they like this or not. If they're fine with all this kicking, I suspect you are correct, and teams will continue to lean conservative and kick field goals instead of trying fourth and fours.
If the league is in favour of more aggression, they must change the rules to make kicking more difficult (which would be extremely easy. It could even be done midseason), but considering the recent rule changes we've seen them make (like royally messing up their chance to fix the kickoff), I think it would be a stretch to say the NFL is in favour of aggression, so I don't see anything changing, which stinks, because I think fourth and fours are more exciting than the automatic 57 yard field goals we've been seeing so far.
Thanks for that bit about Chester. As a life-long Packer die-hard I remember his rookie year well - he was a legit phenom, and a much needed cure for several seasons’ worth of Packer kicking woes. His FG% that year recalls the ecstasy of a last minute game winner against the Falcons; years later, as his star began to dim in ‘78, the agony of a couple misses in a 10-10 OT tie with the Vikes that ultimately kept a surprisingly scrappy Packer team out of the playoffs. But arguably the hilight of his career came in the first game of the ‘79 season, when he caught his own blocked FG on the fly against the Bears and ran it in for the winning TD. The Pack went on to have a terrible season, but that one game and it’s magically comic ending against the always reprehensible bunch from Chi-town was worth a couple other wins all by itself. GPG!!!